Moldova’s Intelligence and Security Service (SIS) came up with a clarification on Monday, 19 December, after SIS Director Alexandru Musteață told a Chisinau TV station that “the question is not whether the Russian Federation will make a new offensive towards the territory of Moldova, but when it will happen,” saying it could take place in early 2023.

“In the context of statements by Alexandru Musteața, director of SIS, for TVR Moldova on the main risks to national security, in which reference was also made to the analysis of several scenarios in which the Russian Federation would try including a ground invasion through the north of Ukraine, towards R. Moldova, we point out that the Director of SIS has mentioned that the objective of the Russian Federation to create a ground corridor to the Transnistrian region is one still valid as of today, and a new offensive of the Russian Federation in this direction could take place in 2023. Its implementation now depends on the evolution of the war in Ukraine.” the SIS release said.

Since the beginning of the war waged by the Russian Federation in Ukraine, the authorities in Chisinau have been reserved in naming a deadline for a possible direct attack on Moldova. This was the first explicit statement by the head of the SIS, who had previously said Moldova was the victim of a hybrid war.

“The question is not whether the Russian Federation will make a new offensive towards the territory of the Republic of Moldova, but when this will happen: either at the beginning of the year, January, February, or later, March, April. But from the information we have, the Russian Federation intends to go further. With the aim of creating a junction with the Transnistrian region, which is the territory of the Republic of Moldova, and then with a clarity we can say that yes, they intend to reach here, to connect. What will follow later, their intentions in relation to Chisinau, we can discuss, but this is a real and very high risk,” Musteață told TVR Moldova.

Senior Ukrainian officials say Vladimir Putin is preparing for a major new offensive in the new year, “despite a series of humiliating battlefield failures for Russia in recent months”.

In an interview with The Guardian, Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said that while Ukraine is now able to successfully defend itself against Russian missile attacks targeting key infrastructure, including the energy grid, evidence has emerged that the Kremlin is preparing a major new offensive.

Reznikov’s comments echoed similar remarks made this week to The Economist – including by Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenskiy, Armed Forces Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi and Land Forces Chief General Colonel Oleksandr Syrskii.

The briefings appear to be part of a broad and coordinated effort to warn Western allies “against complacency and to highlight the continuing threat Russia poses to Ukraine,” the source notes.

While Reznikov suggested that a new offensive could take place by February, other senior officials have indicated that they believe it could take place as early as January.