The contract for natural gas transit, signed by Ukraine and Russia, expires on December 31, 2019, and the two states cannot reach agreement on its renewal. Under these conditions, according to opposition politicians and experts from Chișinău, starting with January 1, 2020, Moldova risks to be left without natural gas and electricity. On the other hand, the authorities urge citizens to keep calm.

ZdG investigates the issue and asks the experts, the opposition parties and the government to assess the real risks for Moldova to remain without gas supply and energy during the Winter season.  

WatchDog.md: “From January 2020, we risk to remain without gas and electricity”

On December 6, Sergiu Tofilat, chairperson of the Community WatchDog.md and energy expert, stated in a video posted on the organization’s Facebook page, that Moldova is the only country in Europe that “could eventually freeze this winter, because we, unlike other countries, do not have any alternative yet to gas delivered through Ukraine.”

The analyst argues that the two previously announced options may raise several question marks. 

The first option involves the supply of gas from Ukraine through the north of Moldova. However, it is not clear from whom and at what price we will buy it, on what payment conditions and whether there is a contract signed with the gas owner and the Ukrainian transport operator.

The second option is Russian gas delivered through the Trans Balkan pipeline in reverse regime. Tofilat states that there are some uncertainties, such as the date the Turkish Stream pipeline will be launched, by which gas is to be delivered, whether or not transport contracts have been signed with Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania and Ukraine, if all the modernization works have been carried out on Moldova’s territory. In addition, Romania’s National Agency for Energy Resources must modify the rules for calculating the gas transit tariff.

Moreover, he states that the lack of gas may also jeopardize the supply of electricity, because it is not clear whether there are reserves of heating oil, if there are wagons to transport the oil and whether or not technical faults can occur at the power plants, because of the quality of the heating oil.

“If the Power Plants give way, Chișinău and Bălți cities will be left without heat. The MoldGRES power station in the breakaway Transnistria region, which provides 68 percent of our energy consumption, will not work unless it receives gas for free. Therefore, we will not be able to import energy from Ukraine either. As a result, Moldova can find itself with no gas and with no light,” the energy expert says.

On the other hand, Prime Minister Ion Chicu calls the citizens to keep calm, requesting them not to be manipulated by people who have only one regretful purpose.

On December 13, during the meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers Prime Minister Chicu mentioned that Ukraine is willing to supply Moldova with natural gas.

However, he did not announce from whom we will buy gas, at what price, what are the payment conditions and if there are any contracts ready to be signed with the gas owner and with Ukrainian transport operator.

Connection to electricity – more critical issue than gas

Sergiu Gaibu, the economic analyst from Expert-Grup, believes that Moldova’s main problem in the energy sector is that the governments in Chișinău have made too little effort and have taken too small steps to solve the energy security problem.

He underlined for ZdG that “we have rudimentary steps regarding the connection to electricity, more critical than that with gas, because we have less than 30 percent capacity to produce electricity from gas.”

At the same time, Gaibu stresses that Moscow will not risk too much with certain conflicts or situations of uncertainty that could affect not only Moldova, but also southern Ukraine, because “a new round of risks will not be approved of by the European Union and will further deteriorate Moscow’s reputation of delivering gas on commercial terms and conditions, and not on geopolitical criteria.”

Deputies from the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) request the minister of Economy and Infrastructure to offer answers

On December 9, several deputies from the Action and Solidarity Party Fraction filed an appeal to the Ministry of Economy, asking for urgent and immediate answers to questions regarding the risk of blocking the supply of natural gas to Moldova. They announce that they will submit a repeated request for a hearing of Anatol Usatîi, the Minister of Economy, in the Parliament plenary.

Former Prime Minister’s declarations

Maia Sandu, former head of the Government, declares that on November 12, when the deputies voted the no-confidence vote against the Cabinet of Ministers she led they were to finalize the discussions with the operators in Romania, Ukraine and Bulgaria.

“After our dismissal from the government, the talks with Romania and Ukraine got blocked,” she wrote on Facebook.

Sandu also stated that President Igor Dodon’s disastrous foreign policy jeopardizes the energy security of the country. 

Dignity and Truth Platform Party threatens with protests

“We consider it imperative that, at the present stage, at least Moldovagaz should initiate the signing of a standard transit contract with Ukraine until this option is activated in case Moldova will have to buy natural gas from countries other than Russia. 

It is urgent to create a crisis committee including the decision makers from the government, the energy sector, national and international experts for the elaboration of a national anti-crisis plan with clear solutions,” the representatives of the Dignity and Truth Platform mentioned. 

They also say that, if the authorities do not take into account their political suggestions, ignore the proposed solutions and do not resolve the energy crisis until January 1, they reserve the right to organize massive protest actions to determine the authority’s resignation and to bring those guilty  before justice. 

Moldovagaz’s statement

On December 9, in Moldovagaz, one of the biggest companies in the energy sector, from the country, held a meeting of the heads of the structural subdivisions. 

According to a statement issued by the company in case the transit of Russian natural gas on the territory of Ukraine is blocked, Moldovagaz is ready to supply the country with gas in reverse flow through the Trans Balkan corridor.

“In accordance with the Supplement on extending the term of the gas supply Contract in Moldova for the period 2020-2022, the available gas transport capacities in Bulgaria and Romania will be contracted on December 16-20, 2019,” the statement said.

On December 12, the company announced that the Trans Balkan corridor is at the last stage of execution, adding that the costs of the works carried out will not influence the increase of the tariffs for natural gas for the final consumer. 

The meeting from the Ministry of Economy

On December 10, Minister of Economy, Anatol Usatîi invited Vadim Ceban, the chairman of the Board of Directors of Moldovagaz, to the Ministry of Economy. According to a statement issued by the ministry, the management of Moldovagaz mentioned that several actions had been carried out to ensure transporting gas in the reverse flow on Trans Balkan transit pipes. 

These actions include capital repair works and putting the pipeline segment Razdelinaia – Ismail into operation. And also increasing the firm capacity of transporting in reverse regime on Ukraine-Moldova line from 4.1 million cubic meters per day to 12.4 million cubic meters per day, additionally obtaining an interruptible capacity of 4 million cubic meters per day and the launch of the reconstruction works of Căușeni SMG, due by December 20, this year.

On December 12, a working session was held in Brussels, during which were discussed details on the preparation of all the operators of the transport systems on the Trans Balkan corridor to ensure gas transport in reverse regime.

A $90 million loan for emergency case

At the same time, on December 4, the Government approved a decision to initiate negotiations on the draft Agreement on support and reimbursement of Emergency gas procurement instrument between Moldova and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (E.B.R.D.)

“The purpose of the project is to carry out the necessary measures to ensure the security of the natural gas supply to Moldova starting with January 1, in view of the uncertainty of continuing natural gas transit from Russia through Ukraine. 

The draft decision provides the empowerment of the official delegation to negotiate the project of the financing agreement to be signed between Moldova and the E.B.R.D., which will implement a funding instrument, only at Moldova’s request, in the amount of up to $90 million for the purchase of up to 400 million cubic meters of natural gas on the Ukrainian and / or E.U. market,” said Minister Usatîi.

He also added that the funding instrument will only be used if Moldovagaz will notify about the impossibility of providing natural gas supply services.

 On December 10, Oleksiy Honcharuk, the head of the Kiev government, confirmed that Ukraine and Russia have not yet reached an agreement on the transit of natural gas, but he stressed that the parties will continue negotiations.

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Nicoleta Braghiș,