{"id":2277,"date":"2020-01-02T15:37:08","date_gmt":"2020-01-02T13:37:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/zdg.md\/eng\/?p=2277"},"modified":"2020-01-02T15:37:16","modified_gmt":"2020-01-02T13:37:16","slug":"op-ed-putins-pipelines-to-power","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.zdg.md\/en\/op-ed-putins-pipelines-to-power\/","title":{"rendered":"Op-Ed: Putin\u2019s Pipelines to Power"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Over the last year, predictions of serious struggles for Russian President Vladimir Putin \u2013 or even his political demise \u2013 have been increasingly frequent. A recent article<\/a> in The Economist<\/em>, \u201cAn awful week for Vladimir Putin,\u201d is just one example. But it is Putin biographer and New York Times <\/em>correspondent Steven Lee Myers whose assessment rings most true: \u201cPutin,\u201d Myers has repeatedly said to me, \u201calways wins.\u201d
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maybe \u201calways\u201d isn\u2019t quite true. Russia\u2019s economy is expected<\/a> to grow by only 1 percent this year, owing to lagging export diversification, large-scale capital flight, and low levels of foreign direct investment linked to Western sanctions imposed after the country\u2019s 2014 annexation of Crimea. As a result, Putin\u2019s approval rating has declined somewhat from its annexation-fueled high <\/a>of 83 percent in July 2014.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But 61 percent of Russians still rate<\/a> Putin\u2019s performance positively. Most democratic leaders can only dream of such favor with the public. Fewer than 43 percent of Americans approve<\/a> of President Donald Trump, for example. In fact, the same incoherent and combative U.S. policies toward Europe, China, Turkey, and others that have contributed to Trump\u2019s unpopularity have fueled Putin\u2019s popularity, by handing him a series of tactical victories.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, a lack of effective US engagement in Syria has pushed Turkey into Russia\u2019s arms. In particular, in October 2015, the United States withdrew its Patriot missiles from southeastern Turkey, which had been deployed after the country appealed to its NATO allies to guard against missile threats from neighboring Syria. In 2017, the U.S. offered to sell Turkey Patriot missiles, but without the underlying technology.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So Turkey reached a multibillion-dollar arms deal with Russia instead, despite the outrage of its NATO partners. (Beyond Putin\u2019s approval ratings, America\u2019s self-proclaimed master deal-maker<\/a> Trump should envy his Russian counterpart\u2019s negotiating skills.) In retaliation for Turkey\u2019s decision to acquire Russian S-400 missile systems, the US has threatened sanctions and blocked Turkey from obtaining F-35 stealth fighters, suspending the country\u2019s participation in a program to build them.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Turkey knows that it is Russia, not the U.S., that is shaping the Syria conflict, and will play a leading role in the country\u2019s potentially lucrative reconstruction effort, making it a much more desirable partner there. Strengthening the bilateral relationship further, Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan are about to inaugurate the TurkStream gas pipeline connecting their two countries.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia has also launched<\/a> a massive new gas pipeline project with China, worth $400 billion over 30 years, and is negotiating another. Here, too, the Trump administration\u2019s actions \u2013 in particular, its bitter (and self-defeating) trade war against China, which may well continue, despite the two countries\u2019 recent \u201cphase one\u201d agreement \u2013 created a lucrative opening that Putin was quick to seize.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The pipeline project, according to Putin, takes<\/a> bilateral \u201cstrategic cooperation in energy to a qualitative new level\u201d and supports progress toward the goal, set with Chinese President Xi Jinping, \u201cof taking bilateral trade to $200 billion by 2024\u201d \u2013 the year Putin\u2019s \u201cfinal\u201d presidential term ends. Perhaps he hopes that the fruits of such engagement will strengthen his position enough to enable him to remain in power, whether as president or in another position, such as security chief, endowed with greater powers.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin has picked up another gas-related win with regard to Ukraine, whose national oil and gas company Naftogaz just received<\/a> a $2.9 billion payment from Russia\u2019s Gazprom to settle a 2017 Stockholm arbitration ruling. The financial settlement was part of a larger deal between the two companies: a five-year plan, starting January 1, to ship Russian gas to Europe through Ukrainian pipelines. Naftogaz also agreed to drop another lawsuit against Gazprom.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although fears of being under Putin\u2019s thumb fueled the protests that ousted Ukraine\u2019s pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych, in 2014 \u2013 leading directly to Russia\u2019s annexation of Crimea and Russia-backed separatists\u2019 takeover of eastern Ukraine \u2013 the fear of confronting Russia alone is even greater. And, with Ukraine at the center<\/a> of Trump\u2019s just-concluded impeachment by the US House of Representatives and upcoming trial in the Senate, the US cannot be considered a reliable partner.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This doesn\u2019t mean Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is going to roll over for Russia. He agreed<\/a> with the Kremlin on an exchange of 200 prisoners in the ongoing war in eastern Ukraine \u2013 the second<\/a> prisoner exchange this year. The recent pipeline deal can also be considered a win for Ukraine: Gazprom had previously insisted on a one-year deal, because it already has the Nord Stream-1 pipeline, which crosses the Baltic Sea to Germany, and will soon complete Nord Stream-2.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Russian negotiators eased their position, perhaps partly in the hope of easing resistance to the Nord Stream project. That resistance includes sanctions, included in the 2020 US defense budget, on companies working on Nord Stream-2, which the US argues would give Russia too much leverage over America\u2019s European allies, as well as those working on TurkStream.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is not just Russia that wants Nord Stream to work. Germany, the main recipient of the Russian gas, argues<\/a> that its energy policy should be decided in Europe, not the US. When a Swiss contractor obediently (if reluctantly) suspended its work in response to the sanctions, the Germans immediately suggested<\/a> that they would find another way to complete the work as soon as possible.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian officials echoed this sentiment, noting<\/a> that Gazprom has already lined up other companies prepared to take over. There is \u201cnothing to worry about,\u201d claims Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, especially given the gas-transit arrangement with Ukraine. As in the Middle East and China, Putin knows that a moment when Europe\u2019s relationship with the U.S. is severely strained is the ideal time to strengthen its position vis-\u00e0-vis <\/em>its neighbor.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin may not have a winning long-term strategy to save Russia\u2019s economy, but his pipeline politics have led to a series of impressive foreign-policy victories. This approach may give him enough prestige to continue his long winning streak.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Editor\u2019s Note:<\/em><\/strong> This article is a commentary written for <\/em>Project Syndicate<\/em><\/a> by a professor of International Affairs at The New School, Nina. L. Khrushcheva. The views and opinions expressed in it are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Ziarul de Gard\u0103.  <\/em>
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Over the last year, predictions of serious struggles for Russian President Vladimir Putin \u2013 or even his political demise \u2013 have been increasingly frequent. A recent article in The Economist, \u201cAn awful week for Vladimir Putin,\u201d is just one example. But it is Putin biographer and New York Times correspondent Steven Lee Myers whose assessment…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":2278,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"autor":[],"class_list":["post-2277","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nOp-Ed: Putin\u2019s Pipelines to Power - Ziarul de Gard\u0103<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.zdg.md\/en\/op-ed-putins-pipelines-to-power\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Op-Ed: Putin\u2019s Pipelines to Power - Ziarul de Gard\u0103\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Over the last year, predictions of serious struggles for Russian President Vladimir Putin \u2013 or even his political demise \u2013 have been increasingly frequent. 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